it is understood that the per capita consumption of shoes in the mainland is not high at present. 1n 2010, each person bought only 2 pairs of shoes on average; 1f each person in the mainland buys one more pair of shoes every year by 2015, the total consumption of the whole footwear market will increase to 300 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth of 15%. 1n view of this, Credit Suisse is optimistic about the future growth prospects of the mainland footwear market, and expects that the mainland footwear consumption will have an ideal growth
it is reported that from 2005 to 2009, the average annual compound growth rate of footwear consumption in mainland cities also reached 14.8%, which is higher than the 11.3% annual compound growth rate of overall consumer goods, reflecting that mainland consumers are more willing to spend money on footwear
with the increase of income of mainlanders and urbanization, Credit Suisse expects that the growth of medium and high-end women’s shoes will accelerate, with an expected growth of 20%. Therefore, Belle, which accounts for 33% of the market share of medium and high-end women’s shoes in the mainland, will benefit directly
Credit Suisse expects belle to record a compound annual growth of 22% in the retail turnover of footwear from 2010 to 2015. 1n addition to benefiting from the rapid growth of women’s shoes, its men’s shoes are also the future growth potential. Belle men’s shoes account fo2.2% of the high-end men’s shoes Market in the mainland, and has become the second best sales brand in the mainland
Credit Suisse pointed out that the possible merger and acquisition of belle and the distribution of special dividends in the future are catalysts for the rise of the share price. 1n terms of risk factors, the market competition is more intense than expected
Credit Suisse predicts that the profit attributable to shareholders of belle in 2010, 2011 and 2012 will increase by 39%, 25% and 20% respectively. The target price of Credit Suisse to belle is 16.9 yuan, which is 27.8 times of the forecast price in 2011