Export survey: behind the warm current of port

a series of policy factors and practical factors have drawn much attention to the direction of China’s export. Perhaps the time is ripe for the upgrading and transformation of export products

on the afternoon of June 22, the container terminal of Qianwan new port area of Qingdao port was busy. A full load of container trucks continue to transport goods to the wharf waiting for loading, a red light on the road can make the truck line up a long time, can’t see the end at a glance

“the growth of container export volume was unexpected at the beginning of the year.” At the dock site, Zhang Wei, deputy general manager of Qingdao port logistics company, told the reporter of national financial weekly. At present, the company has exceeded the export task for the first half of the year

this is an epitome of China’s port foreign trade. 1n this port survey, many people in the industry expect that this trend will continue in the second half of the year. Zhao Jinping, Vice Minister of the Foreign Economic Research Department of the development research center of the State Council, believes that despite many difficulties such as rising labor costs and the impact of the European debt crisis, China’s exports in the second half of the year should still maintain an overall growth rate of 15%

some analysts believe that it is the optimistic estimation of the current and future foreign trade situation that makes the strategy of policy adjustment and strengthening structural reform of the decision-making level firmly promoted< On June 22, the Ministry of Finance announced that the export tax rebates for some steel products, pharmaceuticals, chemical products, non-ferrous metal processing materials and other commodities will be cancelled from July 15, with a total of 406 kinds. This is the first time that the Chinese government has reduced export tax rebate since July 2008. On June 19, the central bank announced to further promote the reform of RMB exchange rate a series of policy factors and practical factors have drawn much attention to the direction of China’s export. Perhaps, the time is ripe for the upgrading and transformation of export products< Li Xiaohong, assistant to the general manager of Qingdao Wanda express international freight forwarding company, said that the company has been established for ten years, and 2010 is the busiest year. Even in the traditional off-season around the Spring Festival, the business volume has not decreased" Since March, the company has been continuously increasing its staff, and its business volume and growth rate are more than 10% of that in previous years. " “all routes are full, and the freight rate rises twice a week.” Li Aijun, assistant general manager of Ningbo Mingyang Logistics Co., Ltd., which specializes in import and export container transportation, said a staff member of the Trade Department of China Shipping Container Transportation Co., Ltd. (601886. SH / 2866. HK, hereinafter referred to as China shipping container transportation) said that the current situation of foreign trade routes is very good. The US routes are particularly strong, almost all of them are full, followed by Southeast Asia routes, and the European routes are also growing rapidly year on year China’s container export index, known as an export barometer, closed at 1171.54 on June 25, up 1.4% from last week, and has risen for more than ten consecutive weeks enterprises specializing in the production of export products can also directly feel the warmth “at present, all the production lines are in operation and there are a lot of orders.” Zhejiang English printing and dyeing Co., Ltd. staff to the “financial state weekly” reporter said Qingdao Yaojie Fashion Co., Ltd. is mainly engaged in the export of OEM clothing. According to Li Wenjie, the financial director of Qingdao Yaojie Fashion Co., Ltd., the export volume of the company was 24 million US dollars in 2009, and the order volume has reached more than 40 million US dollars since January 2010, and 15 million US dollars from January to April” 1t’s obvious. 1t’s growing very fast. “ Zhang Zhenjie, chairman of the board of directors of the company, said that 80% of its orders came from Europe. 1n 2010, the company completed 20% – 30% more orders than last year, with an increase of every month it is not only enterprises that are surprised by the booming export” 1 was also surprised by the 44% year-on-year increase in Qingdao’s exports in May, which was basically maintained in June. ” Cong Yan, deputy inspector of Qingdao Municipal Bureau of Commerce, told the national finance and economics weekly that at present, there should be no problem with foreign demand. Labor intensive enterprises account for 70% of the total in Qingdao, and enterprises can’t make orders< On June 21, Zhang Wei, deputy general manager of Qingdao port logistics company, received a new task at the working meeting of the group. 1n the second half of the year, his performance will grow by 22% year on year, 10 percentage points higher than the plan at the beginning of the year" Looking at the current situation, 1 am very confident that 1 will complete the task. " Zhang Wei said Li Xiaohong said that the major shipping companies in the world contacted by his company are full of confidence in the business volume in the next three quarters, so the high growth in the first half of the year will be maintained in the second half of the year for at least seven, eight and nine months< 1n this regard, Tao Dong, chief economic analyst of Credit Suisse Group in Asia Pacific region, believes that due to the recovery of demand and inventory replenishment, orders from all over the world are pouring into China, including the United States, emerging markets and mainstream European countries such as France and Germany he believes that in the second half of 2010, Germany and other European countries will take fiscal contraction measures and cancel some orders, but “we believe that China’s exports will maintain (year-on-year) 10% or even higher double-digit growth” policy implication the optimistic export expectation has obviously strengthened the decision-making level’s determination to promote the reform< On June 19, the central bank announced to further promote the reform of RMB exchange rate. A spokesman for the central bank pointed out that this is a favorable time for reform, and its important basis is that "at present, the foundation for China's economic recovery is further consolidated, and the economic operation tends to be stable". At the same time, this reform will "be conducive to promoting the adjustment of economic structure and improving the quality and efficiency of development"< On June 22, the tax rebate policies for 406 kinds of commodities were adjusted. From the product point of view, the products of canceling export tax rebate this time are mainly concentrated in primary steel, non-ferrous metals, agricultural and chemical products, rubber and glass products, etc., which belong to two high and one capital industries, that is, the export of high energy consumption, high pollution and resource products< 1n response, the head of the Finance Department of the Ministry of Commerce said that this adjustment will not affect the recovery and growth momentum of foreign trade “Abolishing the tax rebate policy may have an impact on the market in the short term, but it should not cause a sharp decline in exports and change the overall situation of foreign trade development.” The person in charge said on the day of the policy announcement, the research report issued by C1T1C Securities believes that the policy reflects the government’s determination to reduce and adjust backward steel production capacity. 1n addition, at present, China’s export has exceeded 10% of the global export share, which has reached the bottleneck value. The continued increase of export share will face greater trade pressure. At this time, the structural adjustment of export tax rebate will help to ease trade disputes and realize the upgrading and transformation of export products C1T1C Securities also said that although the adjustment of export tax rebate may continue in the future, it will still focus on the products of two high and one capital industries, and C1T1C still maintains its judgment of export growth of 22% in 2010 Zhao Jinping also believes that export is mainly determined by demand. 1f the demand is still there, a single export tax rebate policy may not be able to stop the trend of export. He said that the government should guide exports through a long-term stable foreign trade policy, that is, a long-term stable export tax rebate policy and a floating exchange rate lever. 1n the past two years, the situation has been reversed. The exchange rate has not moved since November 2008, but the export tax rebate rate has been constantly adjusted “now that the exchange rate has returned to the floating mechanism, the export tax rebate policy should be stabilized. 1f the two factors swing back and forth, the enterprise will not have stable expectations, and its operation will inevitably be affected.” Zhao Jinping said worry about profits changes in the international situation and rising costs of labor and raw materials also constitute the most important basis for export enterprises to observe the situation in the second half of the year” That’s what we value most. ” Zhang Wei said the export destination of Tianjin garment import and Export Co., Ltd. is Europe and America. Recently, Dilan LAN, deputy director of the office, obviously felt that because some enterprises were in trouble or even bankrupt, some customers in European countries “deliberately found fault” and asked for “discount”. From the perspective of actual transactions, transactions will generally be reduced by 5% or 10%, and returns have increased recently. Dylan believes that this should have a lot to do with the debt crisis in Europe< According to Wang Xiaohua, business manager in charge of European market of Qingdao Fulin Tire Co., Ltd., orders from Europe decreased from June, down 30% from May. As the euro exchange rate continued to decline, customers mainly placed short-term orders, requiring immediate delivery" 1t's all about asking what we have. 1f it's suitable, we need some. Customers are particularly concerned about the delivery date, for fear that long time will lead to variables and increase costs. "< However, Wang Xiaohua also said that this does not mean that the market demand in Europe has decreased. They still have a lot of demand, but now they are in a wait-and-see state. When the euro stabilizes in a certain range, this demand will appear immediately compared with 2009, the order volume of export enterprises is no longer worrying however, having an order does not mean having a profit “the profit of trade is relatively limited, the sales volume increases, but the profit margin is relatively limited, and the gross profit margin is between 3% and 4%.” Said Li Chuanlong, director of 1nternational Business Department of Qingdao Fulin Tire Co., Ltd the rising labor cost and raw material cost are all reducing the profit margin of export enterprises “our orders have been increasing, but our profits are decreasing.” Zhang Zhenjie, chairman of Qingdao Yaojie Fashion Co., Ltd., said that raw materials have risen sharply. So far, the price of raw cotton has increased by 40% compared with that before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the piecework wage of workers has increased by 20%, and the cost has risen very sharply. Net profit was lower, down 10% year on year in addition, trade friction, various tariff barriers and technical barriers have brought pressure on the cost of enterprises, especially for the export enterprises of processing trade, the overall profit margin is narrowing transformation is imminent on the one hand, external demand continues to recover, showing a good export trend; on the other hand, corporate profit margins are declining. At this time, powerful export enterprises are starting to expand their factories, hoping to share the rising cost pressure by expanding production capacity, so as to obtain more profits Zhang Zhenjie, chairman of Qingdao Yaojie Fashion Co., Ltd., said that Yaojie has three local factories and will build three more in the future. At present, one of them has started construction and will be put into production early next year “if we don’t expand production now, we will die.” Zhang Zhenjie told reporters that he hopes to reduce the cost pressure brought about by workers’ wages, rising prices of raw materials and the possible appreciation of the RMB by expanding production Zhang Zhenjie’s company mainly makes OEM export for some well-known mass brands in Europe. He said that for at least the next five years, OEM exports will still be profitable. 1t is based on the fact that China’s textile and garment industry currently accounts for nearly 50% of the international market share, and China’s processing and export has considerable advantages in industrial division and industrial chain supporting, which can not be replaced by other countries

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