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foreign trade situation report released: three factors promote export to stabilize and improve

On Novembe2, the comprehensive Department of the Ministry of Commerce and the Research 1nstitute of international trade and economic cooperation jointly released the “report on China’s foreign trade situation (autumn 2016)” (hereinafter referred to as the “report”) that in the first three quarters of 2016, China’s foreign trade showed a general trend of stabilization and improvement, new momentum of foreign trade development was accumulating, and the trade structure was further optimized According to the report, considering various factors, China’s import and export are expected to stabilize and improve in 2016. 1n 2017, the situation of China’s foreign trade development is still grim and complex, and there are many unstable and uncertain factors. At the same time, China’s foreign trade is in the key stage of accelerating the pace of structural adjustment and continuous transformation of new and old kinetic energy, and the long-term good fundamentals have not changed< The report points out that since the beginning of this year, Global trade has been at a low point for nearly 30 years, and China's foreign trade development is facing unprecedented pressure. According to the data, in the first three quarters of this year, China's total import and export value was 17.53 trillion yuan, down 1.9% from the same period in 2015. But at the same time, the decline of China's import and export in the first three quarters narrowed quarter by quarter. 1n terms of RMB, the import and export in the third quarter increased by 1.1%, 8.3 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points higher than that in the first and second quarters respectively through the analysis of the report, it is believed that three major factors contribute to the stabilization of import and export. First, in recent years, the Chinese government has issued a series of policies and measures to support the steady growth of foreign trade and structural adjustment, which are highly targeted and valuable. The continuous release of policy effects has effectively reduced the burden of enterprises, enhanced the confidence of enterprises, and stimulated the vitality of import and export enterprises. Second, since 2016, China’s economy has been running smoothly, steadily and well, the export industrial structure has been optimized, the international competitiveness has been continuously improved, the domestic demand has picked up, and the import volume has increased. Third, the overall level of international commodity prices rose moderately in the fluctuation, which significantly promoted the growth of import volume. From the monthly data, imports in August and September have achieved positive growth for two consecutive months the report also stressed that China’s import and export in the first three quarters also showed the characteristics of new momentum of foreign trade gathering, private enterprises becoming the main force of export, and moving towards “excellent in and excellent out”. Among them, the development of general trade is better than that of the whole, and the ability of China’s foreign trade enterprises to independently explore the international market is further enhanced. At the same time, the status of private enterprises in the development of China’s foreign trade has been further improved. 1n the first three quarters, the export of private enterprises in China was 4.68 trillion yuan, an increase o2.3%, accounting for 46.5% of the total export value, respectively exceeding the proportion of Foreign-invested Enterprises and state-owned enterprises, becoming the main force of export. 1n addition, the export of some high-tech products increased rapidly, with the export of materials technology and aerospace technology products increasing by 10% and 12.3% respectively in addition, in the first three quarters, the import volume of international bulk commodities continued to increase and the price fell, which not only saved foreign exchange expenditure, but also helped enterprises reduce costs and increase efficiency. 1n addition, one belt, one road, the other three, saw a sharp division of trade in the traditional 3.3% markets. The bilateral trade between China and the United States dropped by 3.3%. China, Japan and China increase2.7% an2.9% respectively. Further optimization of foreign trade structure when forecasting the foreign trade situation in 2016, the report believes that the low growth of world economy in the fourth quarter will not change, and the downward trend of Global trade is still serious. However, considering domestic and foreign factors, China’s import and export are still expected to stabilize and improve after unremitting efforts from the perspective of international situation, the 1nternational Monetary Fund (1MF) latest forecasts that the world economy will grow by 3.1% for the whole year, 0.1 percentage point lower than that in 2015, and lower than the long-term average of 3.7% for the fifth consecutive year. The lack of effective demand in developed economies, the slow pace of recovery, and the rising trend of trade protection, “anti globalization” and populism not only affect the short-term economic growth, but also damage the long-term potential growth rate. The impact of brexit continues to ferment, adding new uncertainties to the world economy from the domestic situation, the national economy in the first three quarters was generally stable, stable and improved, better than expected. This is reflected in the continuous upgrading of the industrial structure, the continuous improvement of the demand structure, the better than expected employment situation, the basic stability of household consumption, the total temperature of consumer prices, and the steady growth of money and credit according to the analysis of the report, the current situation of China’s foreign trade development is still complex and severe. Considering that the monthly import and export base after September 2015 is generally high, the downward pressure of import and export is still large in the fourth quarter. 1n terms of exports, the fourth quarter is the peak season for foreign trade, and exports are expected to continue to stabilize and improve. 1n terms of imports, the overall price of major imported products rebounded, forming a certain support for imports. However, affected by the continuous decline of processing trade imports and other factors, the overall import growth rate in the fourth quarter will still be low. On the basis of comprehensive consideration, it is expected that China’s import and export will still stabilize and improve this year, the foreign trade structure will be further optimized, and the development quality and efficiency will be continuously improved. Not long ago, Assistant Minister of Commerce Zhang Ji specially pointed out that great changes have taken place in the international environment and internal conditions for China’s foreign trade development. Exports are mainly affected by the continuous downturn of international market demand and the weakening of traditional industrial competitive advantages, while imports are mainly affected by the fall of commodity prices and the weakening of domestic import demand momentum, Hard work is still needed to achieve the goal of stabilizing and improving foreign trade throughout the year< 1n an interview with reporters, Li Jian, a researcher at the Research 1nstitute of international trade and economic cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the goal of maintaining the international market share of China's foreign trade can be achieved this year. At present, the decline of foreign trade denominated in RMB is further narrowing. The scale of China's foreign trade this year is likely to be the same as last year cultivate new momentum of foreign trade development when looking forward to the development prospects of China’s foreign trade next year, the report believes that there are many adverse factors, such as the fragile global economic recovery, the continuous profound evolution of international trade pattern, the warming of “anti globalization” and the deterioration of international trade and investment environment it can be seen that the situation of China’s foreign trade development in 2017 is still grim and complex, but it is also in the key stage of accelerating the pace of structural adjustment and continuous transformation of new and old kinetic energy, and the long-term good fundamentals have not changed According to the report, with the steady growth of foreign trade and the continuous implementation of structural adjustment policies, the process of transformation and upgrading of import and export enterprises has been accelerated. 1n 2017, China’s foreign trade share in the global market is expected to remain basically stable, the status of goods import and export power continues to be consolidated, the quality benefits continue to improve, and the trade structure continues to be optimized According to the report, the new situation and new requirements facing the development of foreign trade need to focus on accelerating the cultivation of new momentum for foreign trade development and promoting the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade< When talking about the foreign trade situation in 2017, Li Jian pointed out that the overall situation next year is not optimistic, but some positive factors will still promote the growth of foreign trade. He said that there is still much work to be done to promote the stability and improvement of foreign trade. On the one hand, we should unswervingly implement the strategy of opening up. By opening wider to the outside world, domestic enterprises should be encouraged to enhance their vitality and improve their participation in international division of labor and competition; On the other hand, we should further optimize the commodity structure and development structure of foreign trade. Speed up the transfer of some processing trade projects in China's coastal areas to the mainland. By insisting on opening to the outside world and innovation and development, our participation in international division of labor and competition will reach a higher level( Economic Daily)

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