Textile export growth is expected to continue to pick up

According to the customs express data, from January to may, China’s textile and clothing exports totaled 106.84 billion US dollars, up 3.6% year on year. Compared with the same period of last year, the export growth rate dropped by 10 percentage points, but compared with the big ups and downs at the beginning of this year, this is the third consecutive month for the textile industry to achieve steady growth, and positive signs have emerged

since the beginning of this year, although the global economic recovery is not as strong as expected, it is still stronger than last year. The international market is generally stable, and the export environment of the textile industry is basically good. From the trend point of view, with the positive impact of macro economic recovery on the consumer market gradually deepening, the export growth of the industry is still expected to continue the current trend of steady recovery. While waiting for the market to improve, some internal structural characteristics of export growth are also worthy of attention

first, the structure of volume and price: raw materials drive prices down, while prices lead exports to slow down. According to the customs data, from January to April this year, China’s textile and clothing export prices fell b2.2% year-on-year, accounting for – 97% of the total export growth. The downward price is the main reason for the low growth of the total export. After deducting the price factor, the export volume of textiles and clothing from January to April increased by 4.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was onl2.3 percentage points slower than that of the same period last year. 1t can be seen that the physical export scale of the industry is still in a relatively stable growth state

this year, the export price of textiles and clothing reversed the rising trend since 2010, mainly due to the downward price of raw materials. The decline in the starting price of national reserve cotton lowered the price of cotton, and the price of chemical fiber continued to decline due to the imbalance between supply and demand, which affected the price of downstream products. 1n addition, the fierce competition in the international market, as well as the RMB exchange rate into the downward channel, also has a certain impact on the export pricing of textile enterprises. According to the market supply and demand situation, it is expected that the price of textile raw materials will continue to be low year on year this year, and the contribution of export price to the growth of total export will still be absent

Second, product structure: the price restricts yarn and clothing, and the performance of finished products is more eye-catching. Textile yarn in the upstream of the industrial chain was directly affected by raw materials, and the export price dropped significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 10.9% from January to April. Although the number of yarn exports increased by 8.9%, the export value still decreased b2.2% year on year

the export price of textile fabrics in the middle reaches is relatively strong, with a year-on-year growth o2.2% from January to April. However, due to the slowing down of supporting demand of industrial chain in ASEAN and other markets, the export volume of textile fabrics decreased by 1.5%, resulting in a total export growth rate of only 1.1%

the export value of clothing and clothing accessories only increased by 0.9% from January to April, which was also affected by the 4.2% year-on-year drop in export price, of which the export price of cotton clothing decreased by 13.3%

however, as the price of fabric has not decreased significantly, the downward trend of clothing export price also reflects that the international market competition environment faced by China’s clothing enterprises is not relaxed to a certain extent

relatively speaking, the export of household and industrial textiles is more stable. From January to April, the export volume of textile products increased by 7.1% year on year, of which the contribution rate of price increase was about 53%, and the contribution rate of quantity expansion was 47%

Third, market structure: emerging markets fluctuate, while developed markets tend to improve steadily. Since the beginning of this year, the ASEAN market has experienced great fluctuations. From January to April, China’s textile and clothing exports increased only 1.7% year-on-year, down 59.2 percentage points from the same period of last year. Among them, nearly 40% of clothing exports decreased by 11%, and the growth rate dropped by 142 percentage points year on year, reflecting that domestic demand in emerging markets is still relatively fragile and vulnerable to the macro environment. However, with the radiation effect of the recovery of developed economies gradually emerging, the ASEAN market still has room for improvement in the future

the leading role of developed economies in the global recovery has been shown in the export of the textile industry. The EU has become a bright spot in the export market this year, with the export volume and price rising. From January to April, China’s textile and clothing exports increased by 15.1%, up 10 percentage points year on year; Among them, the export price increased by 3.5% and the quantity increased by 11.2%, 10.7 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. The performance of the U.S. market was basically stable. From January to April, the export volume increased by 5.4% year-on-year, slightly decreasing by 1.9 percentage points compared with the same period of last year

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